Nevada Early Voting: Democrats Take a 6-Point Turnout Lead Into Election Day — and Clark County Did the Heavy Lifting
Early voting is over, and the numbers Nevada Republicans have to overcome on Tuesday are now printed: Democrats cast 40 percent of the early vote statewide to the GOP's 34 percent, and in Clark County the Democratic share of mail ballots ran 21 points ahead.
Nevada Republicans have a lot of catching up to do on Election Day. Democrats took a six-point lead in turnout after two weeks of early voting ended October 30, according to a Reno Gazette Journal analysis of state figures from accepted mail ballots and in-person voting read in full by the desk. Statewide, Democrats accounted for 40 percent of votes cast (289,890), Republicans 34 percent (246,656), and nonpartisans and third parties 27 percent (196,137). On mail ballots alone, Democrats cast about 51,000 more than Republicans across the state.
Clark County is where the gap was built. Democrats made up 45 percent of accepted mail ballots in the county to Republicans' 24 percent — a 21-point spread — and Democrats led the county's total early vote 43 percent (211,507) to 29 percent (145,323), with nonpartisans and others at 28 percent (137,872). The one Republican bright spot did not reach Las Vegas: Republicans led in-person early voting statewide by two points, but in Clark County Democrats were up four points in person as well, the analysis found.
None of it decides anything by itself — party turnout is not a vote count, and Nevada's nonpartisan bloc, more than a quarter of the early electorate, breaks its own way. What it does set is Tuesday's arithmetic: Republican campaigns need a disproportionately strong Election Day showing, concentrated in the county that holds most of the state's voters, to erase a six-point head start. The last opportunity to vote is Election Day, Tuesday, November 3, when Clark County vote centers are open 7 a.m. to 7 p.m.
